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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

The New York Times plays a numbers game - and gets called on it

UPDATE: The NYT reporter, David Cay Johnston contacted me the day after this posting Tom Faranda's Folly: NY Times reporter David Cay Johnston contacts me re: my posting yesterday on his NYT feature

This morning the Times had a front page story as to how incomes still had not gotten back to their 2000 peak. Coincidentally, that was the last year a Democrat was in the White House.

2005 Incomes, on Average, Still Below 2000 Peak - New York Times

When I read the "news story", I wondered if they'd made an adjustment for new households coming into existence in the last five years, who would naturally tend to have lower incomes.

Got the answer (NO) when I read the following this evening -

American Thinker Blog: New York Times spins straw from gold

In order to convey this misleading conclusion, the paper plays a game well-illustrated by my own family's situation.

Last year my daughter graduated from college, got a job and moved into her own apartment. Those actions contributed to the decline of the median household income in this country.  You see, even though the combined income of my family increased by my daughter's income (not shabby), we were now two households --  divide the total income by two and it's less than it used to be.
The Times breathlessly reports on this same phenomenon on a national scale today.  And I do not use the adverb "breathlessly" idly.  The story quotes Robert S. McIntyre, the director of Citizens for Tax Justice, as saying the data "takes your breath away."  The story concludes with his quote that "trickle down doesn't work."
The story must be based on government data on median household income.  The Times was not specific on what data it referred to; it said that "the average income in 2005 was $55,238".  The U.S. Statistical abstract (as I cite) says median household (family) income in 2005 was $55,647.  It seems too close to be coincidence. It declined from $55,714 in 2000 to $55,238 in 2005, adjusted for inflation, according to the story.  (The online U.S. Statistical Abstract has not been updated for 2005, apparently.)  That's a decline of less than one percent (0.85% to be exact).
However, other government data show that GDP per capita increased from $34,759 in 2000 to $37,532 in 2005, in inflation-adjusted dollars.  That's an increase of almost eight percent (7.98% to be exact).
Well, were there fewer people per household, as in my family?  More government data say yes.  The average number of people per household was 2.62 in 2000 and 2.57 in 2005.  A 2% decline.  Do the math: if you spread the same people with the same income over more households, you get lower "household" income.  In fact, we would have expected a 2% decline in household income.  But there was less than 1% decline.
In simple terms, there was no decrease in income at all.  In fact, there was a healthy increase.  The NYT simply spins a story about average household size into a class warfare story.
Other blog sites have picked up on this story. The NYT writer for this story, David Cay Johnston, responded to one of the other bloggers here - If this topic at all interests you, be sure to hit the link and read on -

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