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Sunday, August 30, 2009


Steve in Hungary

"A careful examination of the facts shows that most arguments about peak oil are based on anecdotal information"

Perhaps you should do a bit more reading! Anecdotal information??!!!

Lower 48 USA peaked in 1970
UK North Sea peaked 1999
Cantarell in Mexico production has fallen off a cliff - down in only four or five years from 2000000bls/d to 400000.

The article you refer to contains NO FACTS.

"Actually, the consensus among geologists is that there are some 10 trillion barrels out there"

In all my studies of the subject I do not know of a single one. And note that the author is particularly careful not to even name ONE.

The article is very clever, and written in such a way as to be impossible to challenge, but you might just do a little research into this guy's prediction track record. It is dire.


Thanks for posting a comment Steve. Why would the NYT give op ed space to a guy who you imply knows nothing?


Who is micheal lynch, the author in question?

some highlights of his career:

# Developed the long-term oil market forecast for the Gas Research Institute

# Provided assistance in scenario planning for several large oil corporations

# Explained the nature of errors in long-term oil market forecasting (Lynch 1994)

# Analyzed the economics of N. American natural gas supply for a multi-client study

# Correctly predicted the development of the oil market in the 1990s (Lynch 1989)

# Predicted the most likely behavior in the 1990 Gulf War oil crisis (Lynch 1986b, 1987)

# Explained the nature of the 1986 oil price collapse and correctly predicted the persistence of price volatility (Lynch (1986a)

# Advised the Secretary-General of OPEC on long-term oil prices

# Analyzed world natural gas supply for a 3-volume multi-sponsor study

# Produced the best long-term oil market forecast at Energy Modeling Forum 6 (1980)

My point here is that his continued well being is predicated on the status quo, ie cheap plentiful oil. Here's another article that came out at the same time, just a few days ago:


Both of these articles represent two sides of a discussion that this country desperately needs to have about resource usage of all kinds.

It's also a shame that you have such a negative view of your friends that prefer to ride bikes or walk over driving.



I'd like to see Mr Lynch respond to this article as well

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