NY Times op ed - "Peak Oil" problem is a myth

I have friends who seem to believe the only ethical way to travel is by walking - and OK, maybe,  bicycling (although bike wheels are petroleum products!). Presumably they'd be OK if someone travelled by kite (maybe not - kites have plastic, made from petroleum) using natural wind power.

They believe this for various, mythical, almost quasi-religious reasons - global warming, we're running out of oil, de-forestation, etc.

But now, in of all places the NY Times, the air comes out of the myth that we are running out of oil.  Excerpt belwo, hit the link for the full 15 paragraphs.

 Op-Ed Contributor - ‘Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy - NYTimes.com

Like many Malthusian beliefs, peak oil theory has been promoted by a motivated group of scientists and laymen who base their conclusions on poor analyses of data and misinterpretations of technical material. But because the news media and prominent figures like James Schlesinger, a former secretary of energy, and the oilman T. Boone Pickens have taken peak oil seriously, the public is understandably alarmed.

A careful examination of the facts shows that most arguments about peak oil are based on anecdotal information, vague references and ignorance of how the oil industry goes about finding fields and extracting petroleum. And this has been demonstrated over and over again: the founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil first claimed in 1989 that the peak had already been reached, and Mr. Schlesinger argued a decade earlier that production was unlikely to ever go much higher.

>>>>>>

In the end, perhaps the most misleading claim of the peak-oil advocates is that the earth was endowed with only 2 trillion barrels of “recoverable” oil. Actually, the consensus among geologists is that there are some 10 trillion barrels out there. A century ago, only 10 percent of it was considered recoverable, but improvements in technology should allow us to recover some 35 percent — another 2.5 trillion barrels — in an economically viable way. And this doesn’t even include such potential sources as tar sands, which in time we may be able to efficiently tap.

No letters to the NYT yet countering the op ed, will post if and when there are any ...

Comments

[Steve in Hungary]

"A careful examination of the facts shows that most arguments about peak oil are based on anecdotal information"

Perhaps you should do a bit more reading! Anecdotal information??!!!

Lower 48 USA peaked in 1970
UK North Sea peaked 1999
Cantarell in Mexico production has fallen off a cliff - down in only four or five years from 2000000bls/d to 400000.
FACT!

The article you refer to contains NO FACTS.

"Actually, the consensus among geologists is that there are some 10 trillion barrels out there"

In all my studies of the subject I do not know of a single one. And note that the author is particularly careful not to even name ONE.

The article is very clever, and written in such a way as to be impossible to challenge, but you might just do a little research into this guy's prediction track record. It is dire.

[tomfaranda]

Thanks for posting a comment Steve. Why would the NYT give op ed space to a guy who you imply knows nothing?

[zach]

Who is micheal lynch, the author in question?

some highlights of his career:

# Developed the long-term oil market forecast for the Gas Research Institute

# Provided assistance in scenario planning for several large oil corporations

# Explained the nature of errors in long-term oil market forecasting (Lynch 1994)

# Analyzed the economics of N. American natural gas supply for a multi-client study

# Correctly predicted the development of the oil market in the 1990s (Lynch 1989)

# Predicted the most likely behavior in the 1990 Gulf War oil crisis (Lynch 1986b, 1987)

# Explained the nature of the 1986 oil price collapse and correctly predicted the persistence of price volatility (Lynch (1986a)

# Advised the Secretary-General of OPEC on long-term oil prices

# Analyzed world natural gas supply for a 3-volume multi-sponsor study

# Produced the best long-term oil market forecast at Energy Modeling Forum 6 (1980)

My point here is that his continued well being is predicated on the status quo, ie cheap plentiful oil. Here's another article that came out at the same time, just a few days ago:

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/08/oilat150/

Both of these articles represent two sides of a discussion that this country desperately needs to have about resource usage of all kinds.

It's also a shame that you have such a negative view of your friends that prefer to ride bikes or walk over driving.

[zach]

http://climateprogress.org/2009/08/26/michael-lynch-peak-oil-bet/

I'd like to see Mr Lynch respond to this article as well