The Times (UK): "We were wrong — worst effects of climate change can be avoided"

It's the Times from London not the good ol' NY Times. But another secular article of faith takes a hit.

"Scientists admit that world is warming more slowly than predicted"

The world has warmed more slowly than had been forecast by computer models, which were “on the hot side” and overstated the impact of emissions, a new study has found. Its projections suggest that the world has a better chance than previously claimed of meeting the goal set by the Paris agreement on climate change to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, makes clear that rapid reductions in emissions will still be required but suggests that the world has more time to make the changes.

Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change at University College London and one of the study’s authors, admitted that his past prediction had been wrong.

He stated during the climate summit in Paris in December 2015: “All the evidence from the past 15 years leads me to conclude that actually delivering 1.5C is simply incompatible with democracy.”

And extremely damaging to efforts to raise Third World people out of poverty!

Professor Grubb told The Times yesterday: “When the facts change, I change my mind, as [John Maynard] Keynes said. It’s still likely to be very difficult to achieve these kind of changes quickly enough but we are in a better place than I thought.”

The latest study found that a group of computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had predicted a more rapid temperature increase than had taken place. Global average temperature has risen by about 0.9C since pre-industrial times but there was a slowdown in the rate of warming for 15 years before 2014.

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Computer models remain the best way to work out how quickly we need to cut emissions to avoid climate change, but scientists could be nimbler at revising them when actual readings diverge from predictions.

Computer models predicting the future? Right. Hit the link above for the whole story.

Comments

[Dennis Cannon]

Whew! The folks in Houston, Florida, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will be grateful for this good news!

[tom faranda]

you're referring to the recent hurricanes? It's your position that these hurricanes - the first ones to hit the area in 12 years - are due to global warming?