On the Wall Street Journal editorial page. Extensive excerpts from the editorial. And see the last sentence.
Clinging to her talking points, Ms. Harris told Mr. Baier that “my plans for the economy will strengthen the economy, as have been reviewed by 16 Nobel laureates, Goldman Sachs, Moody’s and recently the Wall Street Journal, which have all studied our plans” and indicated Mr. Trump “would ignite inflation and invite a recession by the middle of next year.”
To clarify, the Journal didn’t endorse her economic plan. She’s referring to a Journal news story this week that reported that 68% of 50 economists who were surveyed said prices would rise faster under Mr. Trump, versus 12% under Ms. Harris. By six-to-one, they said Mr. Trump would put more upward pressure on federal budget deficits.
The survey says more about the politics of those economists than the candidates’ plans. The better way to compare plans is to look at the actual fiscal and inflation record.
Inflation averaged 2.1% annually between 2017 and 2019, compared to 5.1% under Mr. Biden. (Inflation declined to 1.2% in 2020 amid the Covid lockdowns.) Deficits totalled $2.4 trillion during Mr. Trump’s first three years compared to $5.8 trillion during Mr. Biden’s.
Some of the $3 trillion in Covid spending during 2020 no doubt contributed to inflation, especially the $900 billion that December when the economy had nearly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. That bill was a bipartisan mistake. Then in March 2021, Democrats stoked consumption even more with their $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, even as states were lifting lockdowns and vaccines rolled out.
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The same economists who blessed all of that spending now say Mr. Trump is the bigger inflation threat because of his mooted tariffs, restrictionist immigration policies and tax cuts, while they discount the costs of Ms. Harris’s spending agenda.
Mr. Trump’s tariffs would be anti-growth, but by themselves they won’t cause inflation, which is an increase in the general price level. Tariffs increase relative prices in specific goods or industries. Mr. Trump’s first-term tariff blitz hurt economic growth but it didn’t lead to broad inflation.
Ms. Harris’s economists fret that Mr. Trump’s restrictionist immigration policies will create labor shortages that will drive up wages and prices. But even with Mr. Trump’s tougher border policies in his first term, the U.S. added 1.7 million immigrants, most of whom entered legally. His deportations didn’t make a dent in the labor force.
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Ms. Harris has adopted the Biden spending agenda and more. Mr. Trump is no fiscal conservative, but on deficits and inflation his first-term record is far superior to the four years of Biden-Harris. Voters can decide if they want to trust that record, or the claims of economists who’ve been spectacularly wrong.
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